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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, October 2, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)…is located about 70 miles east-southeast of St. Martin

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)

HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

According to the NHC advisory number 39…

Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to continue passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Tuesday, and move north of those islands by late Tuesday.

However, the strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands to the south of the center. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center..

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday:

Barbuda and Dominica: 4 to 8 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 3 to 5 inches

This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area tonight. Strong gusty winds are also likely elsewhere in the Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.