By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, October 5, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)…is located about 250 miles south-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)
PHILIPPE APPROACHING BERMUDA, WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
According to the NHC advisory number 51A…
Philippe is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near or just west of Bermuda later today, and then reach the coast of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or eastern Maine Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, but Philippe is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. In the past hour, an elevated surface observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with gusts up to 47 mph (76 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across Bermuda through Friday. This rainfall could result in flash flooding.
For portions of New York and New England, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected as the storm moves through the region Saturday and Saturday night. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.
For portions of Southeast Canada, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with local amounts of 5 inches, are expected with Philippe as it moves through the region this weekend. Isolated to scattered instances of urban and flash flooding are expected.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning.
SURF: Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will increase further tonight as Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also reaching portions of the southeastern U.S. coast and will spread northward along the east coast to Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of the system.
A tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent