By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, October 19, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone Tammy…is located about 385 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe
Tropical Cyclone Tammy
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TAMMY MOVING WESTWARD…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY
According to the NHC advisory number 5A
Tammy is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, and this motion should continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when it moves near the Leeward Islands.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Friday.
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, Tammy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy moves across the Leeward Islands.
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles today, and will continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.