By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 22, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone Tammy…is located about 60 miles north of Anguilla
Tropical Cyclone Tammy
TAMMY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
According to the NHC advisory number 17
Tammy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a north-northeast or northeast motion on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Tammy is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
Leeward Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches
Martinique and Dominica: Additional 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto Rico: 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches
These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Southwestern Caribbean Sea…
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday.
Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent