By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 10, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)…is located about 285 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)…is located about 1175 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LEE RESTRENGTHENING…HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK
According to the NHC advisory number 22…
Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Monday and Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the southeast U.S. East Coast and are forecast to worsen and spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast during the next couple of days.
Tropical Cyclone 14L Margot
MARGOT STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED
According to the NHC advisory number 14…
Margot is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue the during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Margot is likely to become a hurricane on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development during the next day or so as the disturbance moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is forecast to merge with a larger tropical wave to its east in a couple of days and no further development is expected after that time. /span>
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic…
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during the latter part of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent