By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 11, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)…is located about 580 miles north-northwest of northern Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)…is located about 1295 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)
LEE IS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK…HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK
According to the NHC advisory number 27…
Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda in a few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.
Lee remains large with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Saildrone 1064, located about 40 miles south-southeast of Lee’s center, reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 mph (170 km/h) in the last few hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast during the next couple of days.
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)
MARGOT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
According to the NHC advisory number 19…
Margot is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northward to north-northwestward motion is expected over the next few several days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic…
Invest 97L & 98L
Two broad areas of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
are each producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. These lows are forecast to merge in a couple of days, and the combined system is likely to become a tropical depression by this weekend while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent