Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, September 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)…is located about 210 miles west of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)…is located about 680 miles west of the Azores

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES

According to the NHC advisory number 38…

Lee is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next couple of days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. NOAA buoy 41048 located about 75 miles (120 km) west of the center of Lee has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (141 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA…2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay…2-4 ft
Nantucket…2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada…1-3 ft
Boston Harbor…1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA…1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY…1-3 ft
Long Island Sound…1-3 ft
Martha’s Vineyard…1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAIN: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)

MARGOT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL WEST OF THE AZORES

According to the NHC advisory number 30…

Margot is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to slow while Margot undergoes a clockwise loop well to the west of the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Margot should weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic…

Invest 97L

Showers and thunderstorms show some organization in association with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and this system is very likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent