By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 16, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Post–Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)…is located about 50 miles east-southeast of Eastport, Maine
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)…is located about 745 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Tropical Cyclone 15L…is located about 1005 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles
Post-Tropical Cyclone 13L (Lee)
CORE OF LEE BRUSHING WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA…STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA
According to the NHC advisory number 46…
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km) from the center. An observing site in Halifax, Canada, reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). An observation in Vinal Haven, Maine, reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h).
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today and tonight. The strong winds are leading to downed trees and power outages. Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.
STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the New England Coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle.
A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
RAIN: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern Massachusetts, eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding.
Tropical Cyclone 14L (Margot)
MARGOT MOVING WESTWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 38…
Margot is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and it is expected to continue making a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster northeastward to eastward motion is forecast by early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, though slight fluctuations in intensity are possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 15L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND
According to the NHC advisory number 5…
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system could become a hurricane by early next week.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by mid-week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent