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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 18, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)…is located about 765 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)

NIGEL A LITTLE STRONGER

According to the NHC advisory number 15…

Nigel is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Nigel is forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate northeastward through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by Nigel are expected to reach Bermuda on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Western Atlantic…

A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near the southeastern coast of the United States late this week.

This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent