Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)
Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 20, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)…is located about 550 miles south-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland


Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 15L (Nigel)


According to the NHC advisory number 23…

Nigel is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and is expected to accelerate northeastward over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nigel is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).


SURF: Swells generated by Nigel currently affecting Bermuda will gradually subside through Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its west in a few days.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Western Atlantic…

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of the Florida peninsula within the next day or two.

This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday while it moves generally northward.

Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent