By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 23, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Post-Tropical Cyclone 16L Ophelia…is located about 30 miles south-southwest of Richmond, Virginia
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)…is located about 1125 miles west of Cabo Verde Islands
Post-Tropical Cyclone 16L (Ophelia)
OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC
According to the NHC advisory number 9…
The center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal boundary Sunday night or early Monday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Neuse and Bay Rivers…3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers…3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach…2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Chincoteague, VA…2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound…2-4 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ…1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay…1-3 ft
Delaware Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area and will continue spreading northward today.
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
Portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia…3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals of 8 inches through tonight.
Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic…2 to 4 inches
Across southern New York through southern New England…1 to 3 inches through Monday morning.
This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall.
SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Tropical Cyclone 17L (Philippe)
PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 3…
Philippe is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the middle to latter portions of the week
while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent