By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 18, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent
>>> Central Tropical Atlantic…
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles are showing some signs of organization.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development, a tropical depression could form during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
>>> East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles…
An area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent
>>> Western Gulf of Mexico…
An area of disturbed weather located over the central Bahamas is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent