By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 22, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone (Franklin)…is located about 145 miles southwest of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harold)…is located about 45 miles west-southwest of Laredo, Texas
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Franklin)
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH TODAY
According to the NHC Advisory number 10A…
Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a turn toward
the northeast by Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight, cross the island on Wednesday, and then emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days while Franklin moves near and across Hispaniola. Some strengthening is possible Friday as Franklin moves farther northeast over the southwestern Atlantic waters.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total maxima of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico and Vieques into Thursday. Across portions of Hispaniola, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, are expected through Wednesday.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area tonight and continue into Wednesday, and are possible within the watch area in Hispaniola beginning Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Harold)
HAROLD CROSSES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING
According to the NHC advisory number 7…
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with slight increase in forward speed into Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight and Harold is expected to dissipate later in the day on Wednesday.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for some development late this week, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
>>> Central Tropical Atlantic…
An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or so, and this system could regenerate into a tropical depression or tropical storm late this week or this weekend when the system moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent