Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 27, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:

Tropical Cyclone (Franklin)…is located about 530 miles southwest of Bermuda

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)…is located about 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Franklin)

FRANKLIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY…LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES

According to the NHC Advisory number 29…

FRANKLIN IS STRENGTHENING…SWELLS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK

Franklin is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north and north-northeast with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Franklin is expected to become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IDALIA…IDALIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TODAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 6A…

Idalia has been moving erratically and is nearly stationary. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected to begin later today, bringing the center of Idalia over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Idalia will then continue on a northward or north-northeastward path over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane later today. Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Carolina’s by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.

>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so.

Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent