By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 28, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone (Franklin)…is located about 405 miles west-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)…is located about 10 miles northwest of the western tip of Cuba
Tropical Cyclone 09L (Franklin)
FRANKLIN REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD.
According to the NHC Advisory number 34A…
Franklin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (235 km/h) with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening should begin later today.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Franklin are beginning to affect Bermuda.
These swells are expected to spread toward the east coast of the
United States during the next couple of days, likely resulting in life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday morning.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)
IDALIA LINGERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA…COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
According to the NHC Advisory number 10…
Idalia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so. Idalia could become a hurricane at any time, and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. An observation in Cabo De San Antonio reported a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolina’s: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolina’s Wednesday into Thursday.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in western Cuba later today. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth in Cuba through today
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning late today and within the tropical storm watch area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL…4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…4-7 ft
Tampa Bay…4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…1-3 ft
Florida Keys…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent