By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 29, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 11L…is located about 790 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)…is located about 245 miles west of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)…is located about 125 miles west of Tampa, Florida
Tropical Cyclone 11L
DEPRESSION WANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
According to the NHC Advisory number 3…
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A meandering northward motion is expected for the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. While it is possible the depression could briefly become a tropical
storm, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected. The system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it could happen sooner.
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY…LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ONGOING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
According to the NHC Advisory number 38A…
Franklin is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a faster forward speed is expected through today. On Thursday, Franklin is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Franklin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast over the next several days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip currents generated by Franklin are already affecting Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next several days.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)
IDALIA STILL STRENGTHENING…FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL
According to the NHC Advisory number 14…
Idalia is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with Idalia’s center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane during the next few hours before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolina’s: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolina’s Wednesday into Thursday.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning areas in western Cuba for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning today.
Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in the Dry Tortugas and will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in South and North Carolina Wednesday night and Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL…7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL…6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…4-7 ft
Tampa Bay…4-7 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL…3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee, SC…2-4 ft
South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC…1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary’s River…1-3 ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach…1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys…1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Elevated water levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba will gradually subside today.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. hese swells will spread northward along the eastern United States Gulf Coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central Florida coast through tonight. The tornado threat will also spread northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system initially moves west-northwestward and then turns northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent
>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic…
(Remnants of Gert)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Gert) are located several hundred miles to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions do not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent