By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 31, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico
CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Jose)…is located about 720 miles east of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)…is located about 470 miles northeast of Bermuda
Post-Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)…is located about 345 miles west of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Jose)
SMALL JOSE STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD
According to the NHC Advisory number 11…
Jose is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Jose is expected to become absorbed by Franklin on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
Tropical Cyclone 08L (Franklin)
FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT
According to the NHC Advisory number 46…
Franklin is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. A little weakening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by more significant weakening this weekend. Franklin is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone by Friday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
Post-Tropical Cyclone 10L (Idalia)
IDALIA FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TODAY…EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND
According to the NHC Advisory number 22A…
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 21 mph (31
km/h). A turn toward the east-southeast is expected today, accompanied by a considerable decrease in forward speed. A slower east or east-northeastward motion is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, Idalia will approach Bermuda over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday. Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, or 100 to 150 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday night. The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban flooding on the island.
WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected to continue along the coast of North Carolina through early Friday.
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to recede overnight and into early Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S. coast during the next few days and will reach Bermuda on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
>>> Eastern Tropical Atlantic…
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an elongated area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later tonight or on Friday while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic…
(Remnants of Gert)
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past several hours in association with an area of low-pressure located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
If this current trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form today before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable over the weekend. The system is forecast to meander over the subtropical Atlantic through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent
>>> Central and Eastern tropical Atlantic…
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system through the middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent