Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, January 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 299 NM west of the Cocos Islands

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)

According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts quasi-stationary tropical cyclone 06S (Anggrek) transiting west-northwestward at 2 knots. Bands of mid- and lower-level moisture wrap into the center of the storm, however the lower-level circulation center is obscured by deep layer convection and weak outflow drifting out of the western semicircle of the storm.

Analysis reflects up to 21 knots of vertical wind shear from the east. Sea surface temperature are warm supporting TC development. Dry air entrainment from the northeast is represented in msi showing a wedge of clear skies to the east of the center.

TC 06S (Anggrek) is forecast to transit at 2 knots to the west through 12 hours, driven by a building ridge to the southwest. From 24-48 hours, the system is anticipated to gradually
curve from a west-southwest at 2 knots track, to a southwest track before continuing to the southwest at 5 knots through the end of the
forecast period…120 hours. The transition from west-southwest to southwest is steered first towards a weakness in the ridge to the
south, then along the western side of the ridge as it shifts eastward
and strengthens.

The intensity is anticipated to decrease to 55 knots by 24 hours, as a result of significant upwelling which is decreasing sea surface temperatures, dry air entrainment, and moderate easterly wind shear (10-15 knots) per JTWC guidance. Between 24-72 hours, shear is expected to decrease drastically (1-5 knots) allowing the storm to become more vertically stacked.

Combined with a track that moves out of the area of upwelling, and into more favorable sea surface temperatures, the anticipated intensity of the system by 72 hours is 80 knots. For the remainder of the forecast period, wind shear is anticipated to increase, combined with a significant influx of mid level dry air, will decouple the vortex and lead to a sharp decrease in intensity.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 244 NM east-northeast of Willis Island, Australia.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery
(msi) depict a consolidating low level circulation center (llcc) with fragmented, formative banding on the outskirts of the llcc.

Upper-level analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment, with good outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high vertical wind shear (20-30 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that 90P will continue tracking southwestward and further develop over the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S…which is located approximately 424 NM east-northeast of Mauritius

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a wind speed image depict a broad area of turning along a troughing area of west to east orientation. Maximum wind speeds (23-27 knots) fill the majority of the northern periphery, with lighter (10-15 knot) winds to the south.

Upper-level analysis indicates 92S is in a favorable environment for development with moderate to high (15-25 knot) vertical wind shear offset by good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 92S will continue to track generally southwestward to south southwestward and, though overall conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct, consolidated low level circulation center at this time will serve to limit the potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.