Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, January 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 315 NM west of the Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 07P…is located approximately 454 NM east of Cairns, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)

According to the JTWC warning number 15, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 06S (anggrek) somewhat quasi-stationary in a weak steering environment with a near equatorial ridge (ner) to the north and a subtropical ridge (str) to the southwest. The lower-level circulation center (llcc) is revealed on msi with a broad, developing eye-like feature.

Outflow aloft is degraded due to dry air entrainment from the southeast and moderate vertical wind shear (18 knots). Skim amounts of tendril-like outflow is driven equatorward by vertical wind shear from the south. Unfavorable sea surface temperatures are depicted due to upwelling as the storm has remained in the area over the past few days.

Tropical cyclone 06S (Anggrek) is forecast with medium confidence to track southwest at 2 knots through 36 hours before picking up track speed significantly, transiting at 10knots by 120 hours. The track speed increase is anticipated to be driven by a str building to the southeast, influencing track speed by 60 hours.

Intensity is forecast to continue to increase through 60 hours, with a peak of approximately 80 knots. The intensification is expected due to a decrease of wind shear and favorable sea surface temperatures as the system transitions out of its previously quasi-stationary state. Beyond 60 hours, the approach of a sharp mid-latitude trough from the west and a decrease in vertical wind shear is anticipated to support improved poleward outflow.

However, dry air from the east is expected to separate the central vortex at the mid-level, causing an expected decline in storm intensity to 65 knots by 96 hours. Between 96-120 hours, the atmosphere is expected to moisten and outflow is expected to improve once again, allowing for the system to maintain intensity through the end of the forecast.

Southwest Pacific Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 07P

According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S…which is located approximately 425 NM east-northeast of Mauritius

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery and a windspeed image depict a broad area of turning along a troughing area of west to east orientation. Maximum wind speeds (23-27 knots) fill the majority of the northern periphery, with lighter (10-15 knot) winds to the south.

Upper-level analysis indicates 92S is in a favorable environment for development with moderate to high (15-25 knot) vertical wind shear offset by good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 92S will continue to track generally southwestward to south-southwestward and, though overall conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct, consolidated llcc at this time will serve to limit the potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 27 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.