By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, January 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 1180 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Candice)…is located approximately 79 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily)…is located approximately 247 NM east-southeast of Cairns, Australia
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)
According to the JTWC warning number 20, sustained winds are 80 knots…with gusts to near 100 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating, compact system with a 20 NM round eye. A low resolution microwave image shows tightly-curved spiral banding wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center. Animated water vapor imagery and upper-level winds depict radial outflow, with enhanced poleward outflow into a jet stream to the south.
Tropical cyclone 06S is forecast to track west-southwestward through the forecast period under the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Due to the imminent rapid intensification phase, TC 06S is expected to increase quickly to 90-95 knots within the next 36 hours, but could easily peak at higher values.
After 36 hours, slight weakening is expected as the system tracks over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and entrains dry air. However, re-intensification to 105 knots by 96 hours is likely after 72 hours as the system tracks over a pool of warm sea surface temperatures.
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Candice)
According to the JTWC warning number 1, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.
Southwest Pacific Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily)
According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds are 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots.
Upper-level conditions have continued to improve, with a point source now present over the center, expanding outflow over the western semicircle and robust poleward outflow. Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low-level circulation, tucked under the eastern edge of the core deep convection. Animated radar imagery from the Willis Island radar reveals deep convective banding over the western semicircle wrapping into a defined low-level circulation center.
TC 07P is forecast to track along the northern flank of the deep-layered str through the forecast period, making landfall over eastern Australia near 24 hours. Environmental conditions will remain conducive through 24 hours, with a peak intensity of 55 knots anticipated by 24 hours. Rapid weakening and dissipation will occur after 24 hours as the system tracks inland.