By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, January 26, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 954 NM southeast of Diego Garcia
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Candice)…is located approximately 520 NM southeast of St Denis, La Reunion Island
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)
According to the JTWC warning number 24, sustained winds are 105 knots…with gusts to near 130 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) and enhanced infrared (eir) imagery depict tropical cyclone 06S (Anggrek) traveling west-southwestward at 11 knots with a tight, cloud-filled eye…as the storm has
intensified over the last twelve hours.
Moderate radial outflow, low levels of vertical wind shear between 5-10 knots and favorable sea surface temperatures continue to encourage
TC 06S is anticipated to ride the periphery of the str to the southeast, taking the storm track west-southwest through 48 hours. The strong ridge remains in place through the end of 120 hours as TC 06S curves southwest and then southeast along the periphery of the str.
Low levels of vertical wind shear and favorable sea surface temperatures will permit the system to intensify over the course of the next 48 hours to an anticipated 120 knots before the storm begins to generally decrease in intensity starting at 60 hours due to a loss of outflow channel and potential convergence aloft.
The weakening is expected to amplify beyond 72 hours resulting from the introduction of dry air entraining into the system and vertical wind shear increasing as the storm transits south. TC 06S will ultimately be decapitated by dry air and strong wind shear at 120 hours, which will significantly lower the intensity to 80 knots.
Tropical Cyclone 08S (Candice)
According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 08S (Candice) transiting southeast at 10 knots. The system appears to be transiting on the northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the southeast that has begun to influence the storm as TC 08S has become increasingly shallow over the last twelve hours.
The primary hindrance for intensification is low sea surface temperatures, despite favorable outflow aloft and low levels of vertical wind shear. Dry air entrainment is apparent in the clearer skies to the north.
TCc 08S is forecast to continue on a southwestward track through the end of the forecast period (36 hours) as it continues down the western periphery of the mid-level ridge to the east. Sea surface temperatures will continue to be unfavorable through the end of the forecast period.
Significant wind shear (20-30 knots) and dry air entrainment, which will fully engulf the system in the short-term, will contribute to the rapid weakening of TC 08S, leading to full dissipation by 36 hours.