By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, February 1, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 09S…is located approximately 704 NM east of St Denis, La Reunion Island
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily)…is located approximately 39 NM south of Mornington Island, Australia
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 09S
According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the cold dense overcast has significantly sheared from and fully exposed the low level circulation center (llcc) that continued to track equatorward, exacerbating the separation.
Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow offset by strong vertical wind shear.
TC 09S is forecast to return to a poleward trajectory as the ridge to the east assumes steering. The marginally favorable environment will promote slight intensification to 45 knots by 36 hours.
Concurrently, the system will begin subtropical transition and by 48 hours, will transform into a subtropical system with an expanding wind field. There is a distinct possibility that TC 09S will dissipate before subtropical transition due to increasing vertical wind shear as it tracks further poleward and deeper into the prevailing strong westerlies.
Southwestern Pacific Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily)
According to the JTWC warning number 13, sustained winds are 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.