Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, February 2, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily)…is located approximately 418 NM west of Cairns, Australia – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Southwestern Pacific Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 07P (Kirrily) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows the system has weakened as evidenced by warming cloud tops and unraveling rain bands as it accelerated further inland. The initial position is placed with high confidence based on a defined low level circulation feature in a composite radar loop from Mount Isa.

TC 07P is expected to continue to decay as it tracks further inland, leading to dissipation by 12 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 95P…which is located approximately 440 NM east-southeast of Nadi, Fiji

The system is currently classified as a subtropical disturbance, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features. Animated multi-spectral imagery and a satellite microwave image depicts a broad area of circulation with curved low-level formative cloud bands.

Upper-level analysis indicates marginally favorable conditions for further development characterized by moderate low-level convergence, moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and high sea surface temperatures.

Global numerical model guidance indicates that the system will track north-northeastward over the next 24 hours and then make a northeastward turn at 36 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.