By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, January 19, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 05S (Belal)…is located approximately 450 NM east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)…is located approximately 232 NM west of the Cocos Islands
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 05S (Belal) – Final Warning
According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots.
Over the previous 12 hours, tropical cyclone 05S has undergone significant weakening and erosion as the main convection was sheared 150+ NM from and fully exposing the low level circulation center, as observed on animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery.
This has resulted in a complete loss of convective support through strong (25-30 knot) relative vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment wrapping into the circulation center.
The unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to persist, resulting in dissipation by 12 hours or sooner.
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Anggrek)
According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds are 60 knots…with gusts to near 75 knots.
Despite some dry air over the southern semicircle, which is hindering convective development, the system has strengthened noticeably over the past 12 hours. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep convective banding, primarily in the northern semicircle, wrapping into a compact core, with a developing eye. A microwave image reveals a partial eyewall over the northern quadrant with a weaker, fragmented eyewall over the southern quadrant. Equatorward outflow is robust as is evident on the animated water vapor loop.
Tropical cyclone 06S is tracking slowly along the northern periphery of the ridge and is forecast to turn slowly west-northwestward as the ridge reorients after 24 hours.
After 72 hours, the steering environment becomes complex with ridging surrounding the system, causing a very slow, erratic track in the later hours. TC 06S will maintain intensity at 60 knots through 12 hours then weaken steadily through the forecast period due to an increase in dry air entrainment.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90P…which is located approximately 675 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a partially exposed, consolidating low level circulation center with formative banding beginning to wrap into the center.
Environmental analysis indicates that 90P is in a marginally favorable environment for development with good poleward and equatorward outflow aloft, moderate to high (20-25 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in agreement that 90P will track slowly southwestward as it gradually develops over the next 24-48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours upgraded to medium.