Invest 92W
Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, December 19, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Northwest Pacific Ocean…

An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92W, is under investigation by the JTWC…which is located approximately 357 NM east-southeast of Kosrae.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict flaring disorganized convection scattered primarily along the southern periphery of an elongated, and very broad rotation. Troughing extends to the northeast and southwest, with no clearly defined low level circulation center (llcc).

Environmental analysis paints marginal conditions for intensification due to low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear offsetting good upper level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Numerical models are split, with the GFS and ECMWF indicating only modest development which dies off in about 48 hours, while the NAVGEM develops a strong tropical cyclone in the same time frame, ultimately heading west towards the Marianas in the long term.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.