Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, December 6, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical cyclone 03P (Jasper)…is located approximately 701 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Southwest Pacific Ocean…

Tropical cyclone 03P (Jasper)

According to the JTWC warning number 9, sustained winds were 85 knots…with gusts to 105 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 03P (Jasper) having briefly exposed a symmetric eye, but the feature quickly vanished over the past six hours. Spiral banding with deep convection persists in the southwest and northeast quadrants of the system, riddled with lightning observations. A radar image unveiled a tightening of maximum sustained winds toward the low-level circulation center (llcc) and an overall larger wind field, expanding notably further in the western periphery than observed 6 hours prior.

Low (5-10 knot) vertical wind shear, high sea surface temperatures, strong poleward outflow, and a moist environment contribute to the assessment of a highly favorable environment.

TC 03P (Jasper) is forecast to continue tracking south-southwestward over the next 72 hours. Along-track rapid intensification is expected, driving up the systems intensity to a peak of near 110 knots around 30 hours.

After 30 hours, vertical wind shear values are forecast to ramp up to 33 knots by 48 hours, and will likely influence a weakening trend to transpire. The JTWC forecast is supported by the sustainment of the near equatorial ridge east of the TC and eventually (72 to 120 hours) the building subtropical ridge to the south, which is expected to steer the system to a more westward trajectory by 120 hours. Should the southern ridge not build in and influence the steering pattern, a quasi-stationary track may onset between 60 and 72 hours.