By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, December 7, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical cyclone 03P (Jasper)…is located approximately 645 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
Southwest Pacific Ocean…
Tropical cyclone 03P (Jasper)
According to the JTWC warning number 13, sustained winds were 120 knots…with gusts to 145 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a weak, formative eye with deep convection cycling rapidly. A microwave image shows a symmetric eyewall surrounding a microwave eye feature, with spiral banding confined primarily to the southern semicircle. Poleward outflow remains robust, enhanced by the subtropical jet stream positioned to the south.
TC 03P is forecast to intensify through 12 hours to a peak intensity of 105 knots, with a slow south- southwestward track along the western periphery of a weak eastern ridge. A higher peak intensity is possible within the next 24 hours due to the favorable environmental conditions.
After 24 hours, TC 03P will track southwestward to westward as the steering influence transitions to the more dominant ridge to the south. After 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to degrade as the system interacts with an approaching upper-level short-wave trough, with increasing vertical wind shear of 20-30 knots from 18 to 72 hours.
There are also indications that significant dry air associated with the trough will entrain into the northern region of the system, which will serve to steadily weaken the system through 96 hours. After 96 hours, a gradual re-moistening of the core, which, along with decreasing vertical winds shear, will allow the system to re-intensify slightly by 120 hours.