By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, November 22, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Central East Pacific…
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next couple of days while it drifts generally northward.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W...located approximately 470 NM east-northeast of Singapore.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a broad area of turning obscured by persistent flaring convection. A microwave image captured formative bands of convection along the northern and southern periphery of the low-level circulation center (llcc).
Upper-level analysis indicates 99W is in a favorable environment for development with low to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear offset by good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 99W will continue to track generally west-northwestward and, though overall conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct, consolidated llcc at this time will serve to limit the potential development.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 17 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.