By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, November 23, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 20E is located about 1090 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 2…
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A generally slow motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest and then north is forecast during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, followed by weakening with the system forecast to become a remnant low by this weekend.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W...located approximately 624 NM east of Phuket.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad low-level circulation (llc) with formative banding in the northern and southern peripheries. The circulation is located adjacent to a 20-25 knot northeast surge event.
Environmental analysis indicates that 99W is in a favorable environment for development with good outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models are in good agreement that 99W will track westward over the next 48 hours but disagree on development. GFS has 99W continuing to deepen before crossing the Malay Peninsula while the ECMWF has very little in terms of intensification.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.