By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, November 25, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Ramon)…is located about 995 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 20E (Ramon)
RAMON MEANDERING NORTHWARD
According to the NHC advisory number 10…
Ramon is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast to begin tonight. Ramon is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99W...located approximately 243 NM northeast of Singapore.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave pass depicts a broad and weak low-level circulation (llc) with some deep convective bursts displaced to the north and west of the circulation. Another image reveals 5-10 knot winds around the broad llc with stronger 25-30 knot winds 160 NM to the north within the northeast surge.
Environmental analysis indicates that 99W is in an unfavorable environment for development with weak outflow aloft, low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, climatologically high surface pressures, offset by warm sea surface temperatures.
Global models generally have very poor confidence that 99W will reach warning criteria within the South China Sea.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 16 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.