By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, November 28, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at the time of this writing.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
North Indian Ocean…
An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95B, is now under investigation by the JTWC…it’s located approximately 857 NM southeast of Chennai, India.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) and a microwave series show a broad low-level circulation (llc) with robust deep convection over the northeastern sector. There is also developing curved banding over the southeastern sector of the circulation extending all the way to the northwest tip of Sumatra. The llc is broad and relatively cloud free.
The system exists in the lone favorable area for development over the entire theater, with extensive divergence over the entire bay of Bengal. The madden julian oscillation that has been mostly non-existent for the past several weeks, has risen from the dead over the Bay of Bengal and anomalous westerlies are increasing on the equatorial side of the system. Steady easterlies over the poleward side of the system have surged across the Malay Peninsula, making for a discernable monsoon trough that extends from the northeastern tip of Sri Lanka to the northwest tip of Sumatra.
Animated total precipitable water vapor loops show a steady increase in consolidation of moist gradient level flow. Ensemble model guidance indicates a clear and steady trend toward development, with the system likely to consolidate and deepen near the 90th meridian. Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions with low (10-15knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, good upper-level outflow.
The global models agree on a steady northwestward track of invest 95B with a steady development cycle as it tracks further into the Bay of Bengal over the next few days.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.