By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, November 29, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at the time of this writing.
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
North Indian Ocean…
An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95B, is under investigation by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave series characterized by convection that is weakening and developing warmer tops. This makes it challenging to precisely identify the circulation. The madden-julian oscillation, which has been dormant for several weeks, has reemerged over the Bay of Bengal. Anomalous westerly winds are strengthening on the equatorial side of the system, while steady easterly winds persist over the poleward side across the Malay Peninsula. this pattern has created a distinct monsoon trough extending from the south of Sri Lanka to the northwestern tip of Sumatra
Animated total precipitable water loops indicates a steady increase in moisture gradient level flow, suggesting the system is becoming more organized and favorable for development. Ensemble model guidance also points towards development, with the system likely to intensify near the 90th meridian.
This suggests that the system is becoming more organized and favorable for development. Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, good upper-level outflow. The global models are in agreement that invest 95B will continue to track steadily northwestward into the Bay of Bengal over the next few days, undergoing further development along the way.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 24 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.