Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, November 16, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02P …is located approximately 420 NM south-southeast of Suva, Fiji – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 07B (Midhili) …is located approximately 141 NM south-southeast of Kolkata, India

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> Central East Pacific…

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two as the disturbance moves generally westward.

After that time, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

Central North Pacific:

There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Southwestern Pacific

Remnants of 02P

The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone, features.

Animated multi-spectral imagery and a microwave image depicts a ragged and ill-defined low level circulation center (llcc) with developmental fronts extending equatorward from the center, typical of a subtropical system.

Environmental analysis reveals unfavorable conditions for tropical transition defined by a layer of dry air being advected over the circulation, strong westerlies aloft, very high (40-50 knot) vertical wind shear, and very cool sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that the remnants of TC 02P will track south-southeastward while continuing to weaken, with an expanding and
asymmetric wind field.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

Western Pacific…

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W…which is located approximately 174 NM east of Chuuk

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict a broad area of turning accompanied by an area of deep convection to the southwest.

Environment analysis indicates that the system is in a favorable environment for development with good outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature.

Global models are in agreement that the system will briefly interact with the remnant vorticity associated with invest 97W, and then move out to the west-northwest while steadily developing over the next 24-48hrs.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the remnants of 17W…which is located approximately 151 NM west-southwest of Yap

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict an exposed, highly elongated low-level circulation (llc) accompanied by disorganized convection across the northern periphery.

Environmental analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally unfavorable environment for development with warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear and weak outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that the system will track in a west-northwestward direction with little to no development over the next 48-72 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.