By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, November 17, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Central East Pacific…
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two while the disturbance moves slowly westward.
By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as the remnants of 17W…which is located approximately 430 NM west of Yap
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict an exposed, highly elongated low-level circulation (llc) accompanied by disorganized convection across the northern periphery.
Environmental analysis indicates that the system is in a marginally unfavorable environment for development with warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear and weak outflow aloft.
Global models are in good agreement that the system will track in a west-northwestward direction with little to no development over the next 48-72 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.