By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, October 30, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Pilar)…located about 210 miles southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 19E (Pilar)
PILAR EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
According to the NHC advisory number 9
Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador or Nicaragua Tuesday through early Wednesday, though the core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is forecast to move west-southwestward away from land on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, for portions of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm Watch area early Tuesday.
>>> Southwestern East Pacific…
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity.
This system has not become any better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development during the next couple of days while the low drifts generally northeastward.
By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Central North Pacific:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the CPHC at the time of this writing.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:
There are no tropical cyclones, nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC at the time of this writing.