Tropical Cyclone 01W / Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal)
Monday, May 27, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, May 27, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)…is located approximately 512 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal)…is located approximately 54 NM south of Kolkata, India – Final Warning


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 14, sustained winds were running 75 knots…with gusts to near 90 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a low-level circulation center partially obscured by flaring convection displaced to the southeast by moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has continued to erode the vertical structure of typhoon 01W over the last 12 hours. Another image depicts the exposed northwestern quadrant of the asymmetric low-level structure with convective banding to the southeast.

TY 01W will track northeastward under the steering influence of a ridge positioned to the east. The system will continue to be impacted by moderate vertical wind shear associated with a short-wave upper-level trough to the northwest through 36 hours. Although further weakening is expected early on due to persistent shear, moderate poleward outflow and passage over very warm water will mitigate the weakening trend.

The short-wave trough is expected to gradually pull away from TY 01W, reducing vertical wind shear for a brief window between 36 and 72 huors, after which the system will begin to merge with a mid-latitude trough. despite the decrease in vertical wind shear, weakening will continue as the storm moves over cooler water, particularly north of 26N.

By 72 hours, TY 01W will start to merge with a mid-latitude trough. Associated high vertical wind shear is expected to begin to decapitate the system at the mid-levels, causing the vortex to shallow as it begins extratropical transition. The intensity forecast is significantly weaker in the early hours than the previous forecast due to stronger than previously expected vertical wind shear./span>


Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds were running 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 01B (Remal) making landfall in the vicinity of Bakkhali, India. Surface observations at Mongla, Bangladesh, reported 41 knot east-southeast winds 85 NM northeast of the assessed center position.

TC 01B is forecast to track north-northeastward from 00 to 12 hours, followed by a northeastward track from 12 to 36 hours. Now over land, the system is anticipated to rapidly weaken and dissipate prior to 36 hours.