Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, May 28, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)…is located approximately 209 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 18, sustained winds were running 70 knots…with gusts to near 85 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows continued deterioration along the northern hemisphere due to subsidence caused by a mid-latitude trough directly aloft, as evidenced by erosion and warming cloud tops over the central convection that is offset northeastward from the low level circulation center.

Analysis reveals a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and moderate outflow offset by subsidence associated with the mid-latitude trough.

Typhoon Ewiniar will continue its accelerated track northeastward on the poleward side of the steering ridge. The environment will gradually become unfavorable as vertical wind shear increases and along-track sea surface temperatures decrease.

By 48 hours, the system will interact with a Baiyu frontal boundary and begin extra-tropical transition (ett) and complete ett by 72 hours. These combined dynamics will gradually erode the system and reduce TY 01W to a moderate gale-force cold-core low by end of forecast period.