Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar) / Invest 94W
Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, May 29, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)…is located approximately 388 NM east-northeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

South of the Coast of Mexico…

>>> A broad area of low pressure could a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico over the weekend. Some slow development of this system is possible during the early and middle portions of next week while it moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 22, sustained winds were running 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows continued deterioration due to cold low level dry air intrusion, cooling sea surface temperatures, and increasing vertical wind shear, as evidenced by stratocumulus cloud lines feeding toward the center that is offset from the central convection that is now elongated and sheared northwestward.

Analysis reveals an unfavorable environment with cooling sea surface temperatures, strong vertical wind shear, and cold low level dry air intrusion offset by strong poleward and equatorward outflow.

Tropical storm Ewiniar will continue its accelerated northeastward track on the poleward side of the steering ridge. The unfavorable environment will continue to gradually erode the system.

Concurrently by 36 hours, the system will begin extra-tropical transition and by 48 hours, TS 01W will be reduced to a 45-knot strong gale-force cold-core low with an expansive wind field.

Western Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94W…which is located approximately 219 NM southeast of Haikou, China

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image indicate clear convective banding. A weakly defined low level circulation and total precipitable water loops verify increased turning and deepening convection over the past 12 hours.

Environmental analysis indicates the area of convection is supported by warm sea surface temperatures as well as low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots) and weak southerly steering flow.

There is over 200 NM between the circulation center and mainland china, leaving plenty of room for further development over the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.