Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, May 30, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)…is located approximately 150 NM south of Yokosuka, Japan – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 02W …is located approximately 175 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

South of the Coast of Mexico…

>>> A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west of the coast of Central America is associated with a tropical wave and accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Some slow development of this system is possible through the weekend and early next week while it moves slowly westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 26, sustained winds were running 45 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.

Tropical storm 01W (Ewiniar) continues to scurry off to the northeast along the west side of the subtropical ridge (str) to the east. Automated phase classification indicates that the system has nearly completed transition to a subtropical low, with the vortex having decoupled and moved over relatively cool waters, interaction with the 500mb mid-latitude trough and entrainment of a significant amount of dry air from the west.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a fully exposed low level circulation center (llcc), with very dry mid-level air capping any chance of convective development. Scatterometer passes showed a well-defined, but slightly elongated, llcc with maximum winds of 35-40 knots. Taking into account the low-bias in this range of wind speeds, the actual maximum intensity is likely around 45 knots, with the maximum extent of the gale-force winds in the southeastern quadrant.

Analysis reveals an unfavorable environment, with high vertical wind shear, cool sea surface temperatures, significant dry mid-level air, no significant outflow as the vortex is limited in vertical extent. The track over the past six hours has turned a bit more north-northeast vice straight northeast, as the low-level steering flow is oriented more north-south than the deep-layer mean flow.

TS 01W will continue to track generally north-northeastward through the next 12 hours, along the slightly more north-south oriented low- to mid-level flow on the west side of the str to the east. The low-level flow pattern is expected to shift to a more northeast-southwest axis after 12 hours, which will allow the system to resume a more northeastward track through the end of the forecast period.

While the system is likely subtropical at this point, this phase of the life cycle will be very short-lived. In fact, extratropical transition (ett) is expected to begin shortly as the system works under an upper-level trough and jet max. ETT completion is expected within the next 24 hours as the system moves northeast into the open waters of the north Pacific.

While the system is clearly no longer tropical in nature, the wind field will take time to spin down and once it completes ett, will actually begin to intensify again. Hence the forecast calls for the system to maintain 45 knot intensity through the forecast period.

Tropical Cyclone 02W

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds were running 25 knots…with gusts to near 55 knots.