Invest 92S
Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, May 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones…although there’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S in the South Indian Ocean


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico…

An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle
to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some gradual development
of this system is possible as the low begins to move slowly to the
west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.

* Formation chance through 48 Hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92S…which is located approximately 588 NM east-northeast of Comoros

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts invest 92S as an exposed
broad low-level circulation (llc) with flaring convection to the south and southeast. A microwave image depicts an elongated circulation with deep convective banding associated with convergent southeasterly flow (25-30 knots) .

The environment is favorable with minimal vertical wind shear, with warm sea surface temperatures, and strong poleward outflow.

Deterministic model guidance depicts 92S slowly developing as it drifts west-northwestward and continues to intensify over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.