Invest 92S – Pacific
Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, May 15, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no active Tropical Cyclones…although with an area of disturbed weather under investigation by the NHC in the northeastern Pacific

In addition to an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S in the South Indian Ocean


Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico…

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.

Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 Hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92S…which is located approximately 574 NM east-northeast of Comoros

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a microwave image depicts a slowly consolidating low level circulation center partially obscured by ragged convective banding to the southeast with an asymmetric circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for further development with low to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, good upper-level outflow poleward, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement that the circulation will continue to develop over the next 24 hours..

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.