Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, May 17, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Laly) is located approximately 629 NM north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

South of the coast of southwestern Mexico

>>> An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development of this system as the low remains nearly stationary
during the next day or so. By late this weekend, the low is forecast
to interact or merge with another system to its east, and further
development is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

South of the coast of southern Mexico

>>> Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 24S (Laly)

According to the JTWC Warning number 3…sustained winds were 40 knots, with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts the low-level circulation center (llcc) of tropical cyclone 24S fully exposed as significant northeasterly vertical wind shear has fully decapitated the system over the last twelve hours. The system reached a peak intensity of 45 knots before beginning to wind down.

The system has begun to track on a west-northwestward track while influenced by mid- and low-level southeasterly flow and a subtropical ridge to the southeast.

TC 24s has weakened under stronger than anticipated vertical wind shear and is expected to continue weakening. Forecast intensities have decreased and dissipation is now expected by 48 hours.

TC 24S is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward on the northwestern periphery of a ridge to the southeast through the next 36 hours. The system is anticipated to gradually transition to a north-northwestward track between 36 and 48 hours as the system weakens and comes under the steering influence of a low-level ridge to the southwest.

TC Laly is expected to persist at 40 knots over the next 24 hours but weaken steadily thereafter as vertical wind shear increases to 20-25 knots, leading to dissipation by 48 hours. Straight line upper-level flow will also result in an unfavorable outflow pattern. If the vertical wind shear continues to impact TC 24S as significantly as it has over the last 12 hours, the system could dissipate more quickly than reflected in the current forecast.