Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, May 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Invest 93W

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 155 NM south-southwest of Palau.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts 93W obscured by persistent deep convection wrapping into the center from the northwest. Another image depicts a consolidated low level circulation center (llcc) with formative banding wrapping from the southwest.

The environment is favorable for development with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear (5-10k knots). The upper-level environment is favorable for intensification as a point source aloft feeds in to a upper-level trough to the northwest that is supporting the system.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement that 93W will continue to track northwestward with steady intensification over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

South Indian Ocean

Invest 99B

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B…which is located approximately 360 NM west-northwest of Port Blair, India

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad circulation area offshore of Chennai, India with spotty convection. A mid-level circulation is observed displaced 250 to 300 NM east of the surface circulation, indicating a disorganized  system. Another satellite pass shows a large elliptical area of turning with an asymmetric wind field, consisting of light easterlies to the north and a monsoonal westerly wind burst south of Sri Lanka with 25-30 knot winds that are not directly associated with the circulation at this time.

Current environmental analysis shows favorable conditions with weak (<15 knot) vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that 99B will get ushered eastward by the westerly wind burst and then hook northward over the eastern Bay of Bengal over the next 72 hours, gradually consolidating into a monsoon depression.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.