Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, May 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones at the time of this writing…although there are two areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the JTWC

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Invest 93W

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93W…which is located approximately 188 NM northeast of Davao, Philippines.

Animated satellite imagery depicts a disorganized low level circulation center that lacks persistent convection with, sparse convective banding slowly coalescing into the circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for development with warm sea surface temperature, weak dual channel outflow aloft, and low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots).

Global models are in good agreement that 93W will generally track northwest and make landfall within the next 36 hours, then begin to recurve back into water.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

South Indian Ocean

Invest 99B

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B…which is located approximately 379 NM west-northwest of Port Blair, India

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depict a broad, slowly consolidating circulation and poorly defined low level circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment for development due to moderate (15-20 knot) vertical wind shear, offset by good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that 99B will continue to slowly intensify in the Bay of Bengal over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.