Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, May 26, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)…is located approximately 700 NM south-southwest of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal)…is located approximately 54 NM south of Kolkata, India – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

Western Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 01W (Ewiniar)

According to the JTWC Warning number 10, sustained winds were running 90 knots…with gusts to near 110 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a clear 4 NM diameter eye feature that has developed during a period of rapid intensification over the last six hours. Trochoidal motion of the eye was briefly evident in eir as the system passed over Polillo Island, Philippines. water vapor imagery depicts strong equatorward and poleward outflow supporting intensification.

TY 01W will continue to track northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge for the remainder of the forecast period. Track speed will increase after 72 hours as the system begins to merge with a mid-latitude trough.

Rapid intensification is expected to occur through the next 36 hours fueled by high sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and favorable upper-level divergence. The peak intensity of 120 knots is slightly higher than the previous forecast peak, due to ongoing rapid intensification and associated upward shifts in the numerical intensity forecast guidance.

After 72 hours, interaction with a mid-latitude trough will initiate extratropical transition, which will complete by 120 hours. Elevated vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures north of 26N will continue to weaken the system during extratropical transition, although the system is expected to re-intensify post-transition due to favorable interaction with the mid-latitude trough.

Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Remal) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds were running 55 knots…with gusts to near 70 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts convective banding wrapping primarily along the southern periphery of a broad circulation.

Tropical cyclone 01B will continue to track northward over the next 12 hours under the steering influence of the ridge to the east. The system is expected to maintain intensity or intensify slightly prior to landfall as favorable environmental conditions, including high along-track sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and dual-channel outflow are offset by the continued broad nature of the system and increasing land interaction with the northern portion of the circulation.

Following landfall, the system will track northeastward and weaken due to land interaction. However, impacts including heavy rain and gusty winds will be widespread from the center due to the large size of the system.