Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, May 2, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Hidaya)…is located approximately 653 NM north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

According to the JTWC advisory number 4, sustained winds were 75 knots, with gusts to near 90 knots.

Tropical Cyclone 23S (Hidaya)

Tropical cyclone 23S (Hidaya) has rapidly consolidated and intensified over the past six to twelve hours, under supportive environmental conditions.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidated low level circulation center (llcc), and a banding eye feature, with deep convection organized into vortical hot towers firing primarily in the western hemisphere of the nascent eye feature. A microwave image showed a very well-defined, 25 NM wide microwave feature surrounded by strong low-level convection. The color enhanced image showed a cyan ring, suggestive of rapid development. The low-level microwave eye was offset slightly to the west of a much broader and weaker center feature, indicative of some west-northwesterly mid-level shear impacting the system.

The environment is favorable for additional development, characterized by low deep-layer shear, strong poleward, divergent outflow aloft and
zesty sea surface temperatures.

TC 23S has experienced a period of rapid consolidation and intensification over the past six to twelve hours, as it has meandered on an erratic track. previously heading southwest, the system turned sharply northward, and has now been tracking slowly towards the north-northwest in a generally weak steering environment. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, the ridge building over South Africa will move towards the northeast and continue to strengthen, and take over as the predominant steering influence for TC 23S. In response, TC 23S will turn to a more west-northwestward track and speed up a notch as the gradient tightens. By the end of the forecast, as the system weakens, it will come under the influence of the lower-level flow pattern, which will drive it more northward, roughly parallel to the coast of Tanzania.

The system is expected to brush the coast of Tanzania, with the current forecast calling for a brief landfall just south of Dar Es Salaam. In the near-term, the system is likely to rapidly intensify. The only hindrance is the time it will take for the axisymmetrization process to complete. Time is the limiting factor, with only about 24-36 hours available before high wind shear and dry air will conspire to tear the system apart. The peak intensity is set at 65 knots, but there is a possibility of a stronger peak if the symmetrization process completes quickly.

After 24 hours, shear begins to increase, really kicking in 36 hours, at which point the system rapidly weakens. Dissipation below warning criteria is expected by 72 hours, as the combination of high shear, dry mid-level air and terrain interaction will tear the system apart.