Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, April 5, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 21S…is located approximately 665 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.
From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
Central North Pacific:
The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.
Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas
South Indian Ocean…
Tropical Cyclone 21S
According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a medium-sized system that continued to consolidate and expand with feeder bands wrapping tighter toward an obscured low level circulation center. a strong poleward outflow is also evident with expansive cirrus streaks along the southern periphery.
Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, strong outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures, slightly offset by dry air intrusion at the low levels along the western peripheries.
TC 21S will continue to track southward then south-southwestward under the steering influence of the ridge north, and its southwest extension. Afterward, as the cyclone gradually weakens, a low lever reflection of the subtropical ridge to the southeast will assume steering and drive a weaker and shallower 21S west-southwestward.
The favorable environment will fuel a faster than normal rate of intensification to a peak of 65 knots by 36 hours. Afterward, increasing cold dry air intrusion at the low levels, then later on, increasing vertical wind shear as the cyclone approaches the jet stream level winds associated with the prevailing westerlies, and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually weaken the system down to 35 knots by 120 knots.