Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, April 6, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Olga)…is located approximately 554 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Olga)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds are 75 knots…with gusts to near 90 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating system, with a developing central dense overcast and weak developing eye. A microwave image reveals deep convective banding wrapping tightly into a defined low-level circulation center

Although there is dry air present over the western periphery of the system, there is a deep moist core as well as robust poleward outflow, low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature values.

Tropical cyclone 21S is tracking slowly southward along the western periphery of the ridge, but is expected to turn southwestward to west-southwestward after 24 hours, along an extension of the ridge positioned over northwestern Australia. TC Olga will continue tracking generally west-southwestward through 96 hours, with a strong high building to the south.

Environmental conditions will remain conducive through 24 hours, allowing for a short period of moderate intensification, with a peak intensity of 80 knots by 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to degrade quickly after 24 hours, with increasing vertical wind shear of 25 knots near 24 to 45 knots by 72 hours.

Mid- to upper-level dry air entrainment will increase significantly over the next two days, with the system embedded within a very dry, hostile environment by 72 hours, which will lead to rapid weakening and dissipation by 96 hours.