Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, April 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Olga)…is located approximately 361 NM north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 21S (Olga)

According to the JTWC warning number 14, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Tropical cyclone 21S is rapidly weakening due to extensive dry air entrainment and strong (35-40 knot) west-northwesterly vertical wind shear.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveals an exposed, tightly wrapped low-level circulation center (llcc) positioned just northwest of a symmetric region of intense convection, fueled by a strong poleward outflow channel. A microwave image depicts convective banding wrapping into a broad but defined llcc.

TC 21S is expected to rapidly weaken through the forecast period due to the extremely dry environment and increasing vertical wind shear (50 to 75 knots) by 36 hours. The system will track southwestward to west-southwestward along the northern periphery of the ridge, with dissipation anticipated no later than 72 hours.

Although TC Olga will approach within about 75 NM of the Learmonth solar observatory from 48 to 72 hours, the compact, rapidly weakening system is not expected to significantly impact the area. Additionally, a strong subtropical jet stream is forecast to remain over northwestern Australia through 72 hours, which will contribute to the rapid weakening trend.