Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, March 10, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 17S…is located approximately 205 NM east of Beira, Mozambique. In addition there’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91S (both in the South Indian Ocean)

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

The North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was above normal, with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes.

From August 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25 as a category-5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest land falling hurricane in the eastern Pacific, after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

Central North Pacific:

The central North Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30, 2023. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin.

Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas

South Indian Ocean…

Tropical Cyclone 17S

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a medium sized system in the Mozambique Channel with formative bands consolidating and wrapping in from the northeast through south intoa partially exposed low-level circulation (llc). Cold air stratocumulus lines can also be seen along the western hemisphere feeding into the llc.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow aloft offset by moderate vertical wind shear the cold dry air intrusion.

TC 17S will continue westward under the steering influence of the ridge to the south. After 24 hours, a secondary ridge to the east will build and extend west-northwestward, assume steering and drive the system around its western periphery southwestward, into landfall over central Mozambique south of Beira just before 36 hours.

After 48 hours, TC 17S will crest the ridge axis then accelerate southeastward. The marginally favorable environment will fuel a modest intensification to 50 knots by 24 hours before landfall. Dry air intrusion and frictional effects from the rugged Mozambique terrain will erode the system down to 30 knots by 48 hours.

TC 17S will splash back over water in the South Indian Ocean around 60 hours. Moisture infusion and increased poleward outflow will fuel a secondary intensification to a peak of 50 knots at 96 hours. Concurrently by 72 hours, the system will undergo subtropical transition and by 96 hours, will commence extra-tropical transition. By 120 hours, TC 17S will transform into a storm-force cold core low with an expanding wind field.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 91S…which is located approximately 112 NM east of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depict consolidating low level convection center (llcc) with deep convection building over the southern and central region of the llcc, strengthening the circulation. Surface observations from the Cocos Islands indicate steady southerly winds at 22-24 knots gusting to 30 knots over the past few hours.

Surface observations from the Cocos Islands indicate steady southwest winds at 20-22 knots gusting to 30 knots over the past few hours.

Environmental analysis shows a marginally favorable environment with high (30-40 knot) easterly vertical wind shear offset by broad upper-level outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate an easterly to southeasterly track over the next two days, with slow consolidation.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.